Publications

Abstract:
In order to quantify the impact of agricultural policy uncertainty on European farmers’ investment behavior, we construct a newspaper-based monthly index of European agricultural policy uncertainty from 2013 to 2023. We use 327,224 newspaper articles to assess and compare the trends in policy uncertainty across five top agricultural producers in Europe, i.e., Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Spain and Italy. We connect this index of policy uncertainty to bookkeeping data from 13,706 farms in these five countries over the period 2014-2018 (N=68,530) to estimate the relationship between policy uncertainty and investment decisions. We find an increasing trend in agricultural policy uncertainty, with significant peaks around key events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the introduction of the European Green Deal and Brexit. Despite the presence of a common policy environment, agricultural policy uncertainty is heterogeneous across countries and captures country-specific uncertainties such as elections and weather shocks. Anticipated policy uncertainties, such as those arising from Brexit and the European Green Deal, allow farmers to analyze optimal responses and make investment plans, and therefore, if they affect farm investment, they do so smoothly over time (e.g., bringing investment forward). In contrast, unanticipated uncertainties, or policy uncertainty shocks, like those caused by the Russian food import ban of 2014 or the US-China trade war negatively impact farm investment.

Abstract:
We draw on a comprehensive survey of 1,719 farmers across eleven European countries, capturing risk perceptions in production, market, institutional, and financial domains through self-assessments and subjective probabilities. To identify socioeconomic and farm-level factors associated with these perceptions, we estimate linear regression models and ordered logit specifications. We find that policy and institutional risks, followed by market risks rank highest, comprising risks of low market prices, strict regulations and low bargaining power towards retailers and processors. In addition, risk perceptions are significantly correlated with a broad set of socioeconomic attributes and farm characteristics, including age, education, farm size and succession.

Abstract:
Following the 2008 financial crisis, international gold prices rose sharply relative to prior years, prompting a substantial expansion of gold‑mining activity. This paper investigates the effects of gold‑mining operations on newborn health in Colombia during the subsequent mineral price boom. The analysis integrates data on geological mining potential, international gold prices, and Colombia’s vital statistics system. The results show that increases in mining activity lead to higher rates of preterm births (before 27 weeks of gestation) and greater incidence of low‑birth‑weight newborns (under 2,500 grams). In contrast, mining activity does not appear to affect fetal death rates. These findings are robust across multiple measures of mining intensity, including illegal mining presence, mining concessions, and gold production volumes.